Today’s Bitcoin & Crypto Mood (Sept 28)

 

🔍 Today’s Bitcoin & Crypto Mood (Sept 28)

Bitcoin Snapshot

• Bitcoin is trading around USD 109,700 with relatively mild intraday swings. LatestLY+1

• The market is in a sideways / consolidation mode, especially heading into the weekend, with no strong directional breakout yet. Investing News Network (INN)+2The Economic Times+2

• Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin dropped ~1.2%, with intraday lows near $108,800 and highs close to $111,700. Investing News Network (INN)

So, we’re in that classic “wait-and-see” phase — volatility is subdued, but things could shift fast.

Key Crypto News & Developments

Here are some of the more significant stories making waves lately:

• “Red September” & Liquidations
  The market has experienced heavy forced selling in recent days. The “Red September” label has been used to describe the scale of liquidations. 금융 콘텐츠
  $1.8 billion in long positions were liquidated earlier, pushing Bitcoin under $111k and sending shock waves through altcoin markets. 금융 콘텐츠+3Investors.com+3Business Insider+3

• Whale Accumulation in Altcoins
  While Bitcoin is quiet, large holders are selectively accumulating altcoins: WLFI, PEPE, and POL are being picked up by “whale” wallets. BeInCrypto
  The logic may be that altcoins offer more upside in a rebound if risk appetite returns.

• Stablecoin & Regulatory Moves
  Tether is launching a U.S.-based stablecoin called USAT to strengthen its presence in the American market. Reuters
  Also, the passing of the GENIUS Act earlier this year has given more legal clarity to stablecoin issuance in the U.S. Wikipedia+2The Economic Times+2

• Industry Events & Token Unlocks
  During Korea Blockchain Week (Sept 22–28), major announcements are being made, token unlocks are happening, and new listings are being pushed. Korea Blockchain Week+2boxmining.com+2
  One notable unlock: Particle Network (PARTI) unlocked ~182 million tokens (~$34M), and Nillion (NIL) unlocked ~65 million tokens (~$21M). PANews Lab

• Strong Talk from Crypto Insiders
  Eric Trump publicly said crypto is going to “boom” in the next 12–18 months and praised South Korea’s leadership in the space. CoinCentral

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📈 What to Watch — Possible Paths Forward

Given the current state, here are some scenarios I’m watching, and what I see as likely:

Bear-Case / Risk Scenario

• Extended consolidation or slip: If macro headwinds (e.g. interest rates, dollar strength, disappointing macro data) intensify, Bitcoin could drift downward — models suggest a move toward $101,500 or even $95,000 in more pessimistic cases. AInvest

• Altcoin drag: With many altcoins unlocked and speculative, they could drag down the broader sentiment.

• Break of key supports: If critical support levels (e.g. ~$108,000–$110,000) give way, momentum could turn sharply negative.

Bull / Recovery Scenario

• Institutional / ETF inflows resume: Once risk sentiment improves, capital could flow back into Bitcoin and large-cap cryptos.

• Macro tailwinds: A dovish pivot (rate cuts, monetary easing) or dollar weakness could lift all risk assets.

• Supply squeeze: As large holders and funds lock up Bitcoin, available float shrinks — that could amplify upside when demand returns.

• Altcoin rebound leads: If whales are picking up tokens like WLFI, PEPE, etc., they may lead the next wave, with BTC catching up.

My Base Prediction

• In the short term (days to 1–2 weeks): I expect continued sideways action with occasional tests of support around $108,500–$109,000 and resistance near $111,500–$112,500.

• Over the next 4–8 weeks: If macro conditions remain accommodative, I lean toward a mild bullish drift, possibly challenging toward $115,000 again. But that depends heavily on risk-on sentiment returning and institutional demand picking up.

• A wild card: Any major regulatory, institutional, or geopolitical shock could upset that baseline.